Bitcoiners breathed a sigh of relief this week when the drama-fueled price decline finally came to a close. The downtrend persisted for the first two days of the week, but the price quickly rebounded and began making small — yet welcome — gains that continued for the rest of the week. This recovery in the markets coincided with the winding down of the Bitcoin XT drama, which began drawing to a close as miners rejected XT in favor of a much more modest BIP 100.
Total Change: -0.33%
Monday, August 24, 2015 opened the week with the Bitcoin price at $228.26, continuing the decline that persisted throughout last week. The price trended downwards for the entire day, actually falling below $200 at 8 PM and hitting a low of $198.12. The markets attempted to recover from this trough in the last few hours of the day, just barely making it back into the $200s.
Tuesday opened at $204.02, narrowly making it out of the sub-$200 range. Fortunately, though, the 25th marked the start of a fairly enthusiastic recovery, with the Bitcoin price rising considerably throughout the duration of the day. By midday, Bitcoin returned to the $220s, where it would stay for the rest of the day. Tuesday ended with the Bitcoin price in this $220s range, closing the day ay $220.27.
In Tuesday’s news, Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool rejected Gavin Andresen’s and Mike Hearn’s highly controversial Bitcoin XT implementation, opting for the much milder BIP 100 update. Other large pools chose BIP 100 over XT as well, including BitClubPool and Kano.is, along with smaller pools. F2Pool’s rejection represented 25% or more of the network’s hash rate voting against Bitcoin XT. Having over a quarter of the network swearing off XT must have eased speculators’ nerves at least somewhat, since the Bitcoin price seemed to stabilize in conjunction with this significant development in the XT drama.
August 26 kicked off at $220.27, showing positive signs that the Bitcoin price would continue to rise. Sure enough, the price jumped rather sharply in the early morning hours, reaching a peak of $231.09 at 8 AM. Although remaining in the $220s, the price did decline slightly throughout the remainder of the day. By noon, the price had fallen from the $231 peak to $228.24. The day ended on a bearish note at $224.19; however, this closing price was still a far cry from the sub-$200 levels endured on Monday.
Thursday began with the Bitcoin price at $224.19. Although the price fluctuated throughout the day, the markets ultimately remained steady. Bitcoin made modest gains during the first half of the day, peaking at $228.80 by the close of the 1 PM hour. However, the second half of the day saw those gains liquidated, with the price hitting a low of $220.29 at 9 PM. August 27 closed on the downside, at $224.15
August 28 opened at $224.15 and set out on a price climb that would persist for the first half of the day before leveling out. The appreciation concluded at noon, reaching a high of $235.93. During the latter half of Friday, however, the price fell into the low $230s and took up a relatively sideways pattern. The day ended in a continuance of this holding pattern, with the Bitcoin price staying in the low $230s.
On Friday, we reported that two people were arrested in Taiwan under suspicions of being connected to the MyCoin scam that made headlines several months ago. MyCoin posed as a Bitcoin exchange, but was really a ponzi scheme operation that duped victims out of $1 billion NT, equivalent to $30.6 million USD. The two men arrested a few days ago were Lu Kuan-wei and Chen Yun-fei; authorities suspect these two men of convincing victims to “invest” in the MyCoin ponzi scheme, promising them outlandish returns.
Saturday, August 29 kicked off at $231.72, locked into the holding pattern established during the previous night. That sideways action was quickly broken off though, and the markets entered a gentle downward slide that would last until Saturday night. By noon, the price had fallen to $228.92, and continued to fall until 6 PM, where the price dropped to $228.16 — a rather insignificant yet definite decline. At 7 PM, however, the price jumped back into the $230s and stayed there until the day closed.
In the news for August 29, we reported that Ali Amin, an American teenager arrested for supporting ISIS earlier in 2015, received his prison sentence. Amin received 11 years in prison, plus lifetime supervision and internet monitoring after his release. Amin used social media to give ISIS advice on how to use Bitcoin to launder funds coming from the United States, as well as advised another teen on how to leave the country without detection and join ISIS overseas. Amin did some work as a Bitcoin journalist, briefly writing for CoinBrief.
August 30 began with the Bitcoin price at $231.33. The day opened on the decline, though, and the price slid down into the high $220s fairly early in the morning. The markets hit a daily low at midday, falling all the way to $225.04. However, the Bitcoin price began climbing once more in the latter half of the day, rising again into the high $220s. The price stayed in the high $220s throughout the night, eventually closing out the week at $227.50. Ultimately, the Bitcoin price did not change much over the entire week; after recovering from the Bitcoin XT-fueled downtrend, the total change for the week amounted to a decline of 0.33%.
In the days following F2Pool’s rejection of Bitcoin XT, over 50% of the network has rejected Andresen’s and Hearn’s implementation, opting for the more modest BIP 100. This majority rejection of XT essentially means that the bold update to Bitcoin Core is effectively dead. Therefore, selling pressure related to the XT drama should be filtered out of the market — as suggested by the downtrend’s end early in the week. Thus, while Gavin Andresen’s and Mike Hearn’s reputations may be permanantly tarnished by their conterversial move — which many considered an uncalled for power-grab — any damage inflicted upon the Bitcoin price seems to have been temporary and totally speculative.
With the Bitcoin XT drama seemingly coming to a close, we can once again turn to the market’s underlying fundamentals to judge the trajectory of the Bitcoin price. Not much has changed since the XT drama began; before this speculative bear-run, the price had been making confident gains and enjoying low volatility during quiet periods. With the drama waning, we may be able to expect similar activity to return to the markets in the near future — possibly in the coming week. At the very least, though, it is unlikely that we will see the price decline any further, barring the occurrence of some unexpected and negative event in the coming days. Thus, we can confidently say that the price could very well remain in the $220-$230 range, with slight deviations above or below that range.
What do you think will happen to the Bitcoin price in the coming week? Let us know in the comments below!
Images courtesy of MyCoin, Wikipedia
Evan is the Senior Editor of Bitcoin.com. He has a bachelor's degree in History with minors in Economics and Political Science. When he's not acting like he knows what he's doing in the newsroom, Evan is most likely playing video games. Follow Evan on Twitter @EvanFaggart.
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